What Have We Learned?And so, as I send my ghostly self off to seek reunion with his family in Ohio, it’s time to doff the fictional disguise, pull back and take the long view of the month-long oil crisis simulation exercise that was
World Without Oil.
I don’t know how many people, stumbling on this blog by accident, followed the
links back to the explanation for its existence. I’m pretty sure that “geoff” did not, (he commented on an early entry that, for riding my bike in Los Angeles traffic, I was “another target on the road -- get a car you freak.”)
I never wanted to break the illusion within the space of the blog that I was actually living in this alternate reality that included the onset of Peak Oil in the form of a sudden spike in the price of gasoline, triggering societal and economic collapse; so I provided readers with no indication, other than the aforementioned link, that this was a
War of the Worlds-type simulation. Given that some of the events mentioned in the blog overlapped with events in the real world (e.g., the local immigration protest and riot in MacArthur Park), one might very well have concluded that the author was hallucinating some sort of paranoid delusion. But often, that’s what immersion in Peak Oil literature feels like anyway.
World Without Oil, as its designers describe it, was an “alternate reality event, a serious game for the public good. It invite(d) everyone to help simulate a global oil shock. People participate by contributing online stories, created as though the oil shock were really happening.”
The “event” ran throughout the month of May, 2007, with each day advancing the chronological pace of events and contextual storyline by one week, a scheme that was initially a little difficult to get used to. Escalating events tumbled on top of each other, condensing considerably the amount of time one had to react to them, or to make plans as to what should come next. And you never knew where it was going to go. In addition, some user contributions (a report of a U.S. “incursion” into the Canadian tarsand fields, a charge that the U.S. President had ordered an airstrike on Watts [!?]) tended to throw a few hard-to-integrate incidents into the mix. In general, for my part, I ignored them.
Since the initial unexplained price spike of a dollar or so per gallon was supposed to have occurred on April 30, that was the first day for the submission of blog entries, photos, videos, podcasts, email and/or phone messages contributing to a collaborative fiction which eventually summed up to a grand total of 32 weeks of “crisis,” ending in early December of this year, though things seemed to sort of settle down over the last couple of days (weeks) as the nearly eighteen hundred registered “heroes” or, as they were called on the site “Netizens”, began to sense that the end (of the simulation) was near.
What was the point? Again, according to the site’s designers, “World Without Oil aims to help fill a huge gap in our nation’s thinking about oil and the economy. As people everywhere grapple with the problem of growing global demand for petroleum, no one has a clear picture of oil availability in the future, nor is there a clear picture of what will happen when demand inevitably outstrips supply. That will depend in large part upon how well people prepare, cooperate, and collectively create solutions. By playing it out in a serious way, the game aims to apply collective intelligence and imagination to the problem in advance, and to create a record that has value for educators, policymakers, and the common people to anticipate the future and prevent its worst outcomes. ‘Play it, before you live it.’”
So the simple question to be asked is, given its self-stated goal, did this online simulation accomplish its purpose?
For my part, I honestly have my doubts, though I have to confess that I have not read every blog entry or perused every video submitted; and, in fact, due to a ten day hiatus when I was out of the country and unable to access the site, there’s a big hole in the middle of my personal experience of the simulation as evidenced by my lack of entries between the fifteenth and twenty-fourth of the month.
Still, my impression is that the site was no more than a momentary blip on the radar of Internet traffic, even in the relatively small pond that represents interest in the subject of Peak Oil online; to my knowledge, it was only given a couple of mentions and not actively discussed on the web’s best Peak Oil site,
The Oil Drum.
Why should this be? It appears to have been well-funded (though not terribly well-publicized) by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting and, despite a couple of technical glitches, well-produced by something called ITVS Interactive (Independent Television Service) and WriterGuy LLC. The participation of these organizations, however, raises the question as to whether this was really, in and of itself, a legitimate civic-minded thought experiment to plumb the depths of the public’s fears, concerns, reactions, and possible solutions to such a crisis; or, was the general public (the part with access to the Internet and an interest in the topic) being mined for content to act as creative contributor to some sort of future television series or special on the subject? The answer to that question remains to be seen.
At one point before the experiment began, Matt Savinar, owner of the popular
Life After the Oil Crash site, even suggested that this might be a sort of fishing expedition on the part of shadowy government agencies attempting to take the temperature of the citizenry by inviting them to spin out their fantasy scenarios in a public forum. Hm, well, could be . . .
I guess my question would be, what sort of an impact did the experiment itself have? On that score, and without having access to statistical data (the blog I dedicated to the experiment doesn’t count visitors, and I don’t know how many folks eventually checked into the WWO site) I’d have to say not much at all, although the “players” themselves, at least the ones who posted regularly, seemed to register a good deal of “parting is such sweet sorrow” style emotion in their final posts, as if we were all graduating high school together. And I’m not putting that down by pointing it out: online community is a very real kind of experience for many people, though one that qualitatively differs from actual face-to-face type community, a distinction that is often lost on people deeply invested in creating such things. I am, as I noted at one point in this blog sequence, one of those people so invested, by the way.
And that’s why, apart from my concerns about the magnitude of what
James Kunstler calls the “converging catastrophes of the twenty-first century”, Peak Oil and Climate Change, this experiment drew me in. I desperately wanted to find out what a diverse group of people, widely scattered over vast geographical distances, thought might occur under such circumstances.
I’d have to say that I was disappointed in the degree of participation, on the one hand, and in the quality of the participation as well. I imagine that the site’s creators might protest, “Well, it was up to you to make it better!” And I’d concur (mea culpa!), with the small exception that online community is a collaborative experience that takes place in a
designed arena. You provide people with the toolkit and the parameters of play and set them to work. The quality of the tools you provide (and the arena) determines, to some extent, the quality of the experience. I personally did not find the collaborative experience all that compelling, but that may just be me. Nonetheless, this is a subject in which I
am deeply involved – so why was this virtual incarnation of it ultimately so unsatisfying?
This is just speculation on my part, but I think the answer to that question lies within the participants themselves, including the site designers – and so I do in fact include myself in their number. We all live inside a fish bowl, and it is very difficult for we fish to comment on the nature and quality of the water we daily swim in – or what might happen to us all were the amount of water in the bowl suddenly cut in half.
It seems to have been very hard for people to
imagine what existence in a world without oil would
really look or feel like. This became most obvious in the video contributions, where life was clearly proceeding along pretty much as normal in the background, while the guy in the foreground was trying desperately to pretend that existence was tough and things were falling apart all over. It had a sort of silly quality to it, and while I’ve entertained a number of scenarios of what could occur with the onset of Peak Oil, “silly” hasn’t really entered the picture very often.
Folks contributing little community-based “missions”, hiding caches of tools for others to locate or creating games, puzzles and other “fun” activities didn’t really strike me as credible or effective responses to the kinds of problems Peak Oil has the potential to create. It’s not that I scoff at the indomitable quality of the human spirit or our ability to laugh and entertain ourselves in times of trouble – but folks, the world was supposed to be coming apart at the seams. There was a lot of work to be done – or there would be, if the situation were as serious as it was at first made to seem.
This was a theme I tried to incorporate in my blog, because, if the real situation should in fact overtake us, I think a major problem will indeed be that the general populace will not take it
seriously enough
soon enough to do what needs to be done to prevent massive social and economic disruption. The evidence? Look around you now. Are we busy making preparations? The Hirsch Report, published by the Department of Energy two years ago, said we should have started
twenty years ago. Do you see anybody other than a few Internet hotheads, a couple of not-terribly-well-known authors and Rep. Bartlett of Maryland taking this issue seriously?
I don’t. I think we’re busy whistling past the graveyard, amusing ourselves with visions of an ever more abundant future and “cool” cars that run on biomass and leftover frying oils.
Okay, that said, I did learn a few things from this experiment, the first of which I communicated to one of the site organizers who emailed me early on with words of encouragement (that were greatly appreciated. Thank you, yuckymuck.) I wrote back that one of my first discoveries derived from the process of imagining the scope of the crisis was this: that being
aware of the problem is not the same as being
prepared for it. For as long as I have been aware of this problem, I have actually done woefully little to address it in practical terms, other than to reduce the amount of my debt, compost my garbage, and plant a vegetable garden in the backyard.
Secondly, at some point I realized that the world was going to divide into two parts, one With Oil and one Without – or rather, one Without the Ability To Pay for Oil. That would be the first stage of a long slow process of splintering and collapse: one part of the world (the part that could afford it) would go on behaving as usual, probably with the collusion of government and an extensive black market economy, and another part would take
a dramatic step down in quality of life, perhaps even giving up altogether and being rounded up and shuttled off into government-sponsored “relocation camps.”
I’d never really thought about this before, or about how much violence might accompany such a split in the social and economic fabric of the country, but I seemed to be forced to that conclusion by the circumstances I was describing. It was a sobering experience, and I have to say that, as I began to invest a certain amount of imaginative energy in the process, the dark feelings of the virtual experience began to bleed over into my everyday real life experience. I began to wander around, looking at the things I was certain were about to vanish from my life. The mood colored the remainder of my writing on the subject and, ultimately, led me to banish my fictional alter ego from the community he had helped to form but of which he had never really felt a part. Like many quintessentially American literary figures, he was finally fated to be sent off on an unresolved search for someplace to call home.
The third thing I discovered in the writing was that a recognizable moment of total collapse would never actually come; there would only be a long grinding series of shockwaves that would gradually make the structure, our fossil fuel-based economy, more and more inhospitable and eventually uninhabitable. I used the metaphor of earthquakes in Los Angeles, and the way we deal with such disasters here; but I really think the metaphor applies to a temperament that is peculiarly American, but maybe also peculiarly human as well, this ability we have to live in a shithouse and dream about voyaging to the stars.
Finally, though I have voiced criticism of the experiment and what I view as its result, the jury is still out. It may very well have a wider significance than I have granted it. I personally want to thank the people responsible for it for their efforts and for having provided me with the opportunity to participate. Ultimately, it was a rewarding if somewhat frustrating experience; I would like to see more like it.
This very long essay caps off the series for WWO, and probably my contributions to this blog as well. I would like to request that if you found any of this writing at all compelling and want to see what else I’m cooking up, please visit my regular blog
here, in which I’ve previously published some additional essays on the nature of virtual worlds. It is a part of a virtual storefront for a book I self-published awhile back called
Chronological Order, a collection of my writings from which the concluding poem “Illumination” was reprinted. Until then, or until Peak Oil brings the whole mad enterprise crashing down around us – take care, my friends. Stay safe, stay sane, and stay alive.